Integration of Wind Turbine Generation (WTG) into utility generating systems

In order to obtain information required for the economical integration of wind turbine generation into utility systems, performance simulations of the MOD-2 turbine were conducted. The sensitivity of the utility-cost-of-generation to wind turbine performance models and the accuracy of wind velocity forecasts was analyzed. Four different simulation methods were used and the characteristics of each are discussed

Economics of wind energy for utilities

Utility acceptance of this technology will be contingent upon the establishment of both its technical and economic feasibility. This paper presents preliminary results from a study currently underway to establish the economic value of central station wind energy to certain utility systems. The results for the various utilities are compared specifically in terms of three parameters which have a major influence on the economic value: (1) wind resource, (2) mix of conventional generation sources, and (3) specific utility financial parameters including projected fuel costs. The wind energy is derived from modeling either MOD-2 or MOD-0A wind turbines in wind resources determined by a year of data obtained from the DOE supported meteorological towers with a two-minute sampling frequency. In this paper, preliminary results for six of the utilities studied are presented and compared

Shallow landsliding and catchment connectivity within the Houpoto Forest, New Zealand.

Active landslides and their contribution to catchment connectivity have been investigated within the Houpoto Forest, North Island, New Zealand. The aim was to quantify the proportion of buffered versus coupled landslides and explore how specific physical conditions influenced differences in landslide connectivity. Landsliding and land use changes between 2007 and 2010 were identified and mapped from aerial photography, and the preliminary analyses and interpretations of these data are presented here. The data indicate that forest harvesting made some slopes more susceptible to failure, and consequently many landslides were triggered during subsequent heavy rainfall events. Failures were particularly widespread during two high magnitude (> 200 mm/day) rainfall events, as recorded in 2010 imagery. Connectivity was analysed by quantifying the relative areal extents of coupled and buffered landslides identified in the different images. Approximately 10 % of the landslides were identified as being coupled to the local stream network, and thus directly contributing to the sediment budget. Following liberation of landslides during high-magnitude events, low-magnitude events are thought to be capable of transferring more of this sediment to the channel. Subsequent re-planting of the slopes appears to have helped recovery by increasing the thresholds for failure, thus reducing the number of landslides during subsequent high-magnitude rainfall events. Associated with this is a reduction in slope-channel connectivity. These preliminary results highlight how site specific preconditioning, preparatory and triggering factors contribute to landslide distribution and connectivity, in addition to how efficient re-afforestation improves the rate of slope recovery

Friends and Symptom Dimensions in Patients with Psychosis: A Pooled Analysis

PMCID: PMC3503760This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Mechanism of thermal decomposition of poly(ether ether ketone) (PEEK) from a review of decomposition studies

A review of the literature on the flammability and decomposition of poly(oxy-1,4-phenyleneoxy-1,4-phenylenecarbonyl-1,4-phenylene) (PEEK) is presented. This paper provides an overview of the flammability of PEEK and its decomposition mechanisms. Based on this literature, mechanisms have been suggested which attempt to explain the products formed at each stage of PEEK decomposition and indicate the intermediates which should be formed at each of these stages

Auxiliary Likelihood-Based Approximate Bayesian Computation in State Space Models

A computationally simple approach to inference in state space models is proposed, using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC avoids evaluation of an intractable likelihood by matching summary statistics for the observed data with statistics computed from data simulated from the true process, based on parameter draws from the prior. Draws that produce a 'match' between observed and simulated summaries are retained, and used to estimate the inaccessible posterior. With no reduction to a low-dimensional set of sufficient statistics being possible in the state space setting, we define the summaries as the maximum of an auxiliary likelihood function, and thereby exploit the asymptotic sufficiency of this estimator for the auxiliary parameter vector. We derive conditions under which this approach - including a computationally efficient version based on the auxiliary score - achieves Bayesian consistency. To reduce the well-documented inaccuracy of ABC in multi-parameter settings, we propose the separate treatment of each parameter dimension using an integrated likelihood technique. Three stochastic volatility models for which exact Bayesian inference is either computationally challenging, or infeasible, are used for illustration. We demonstrate that our approach compares favorably against an extensive set of approximate and exact comparators. An empirical illustration completes the paper.Comment: This paper is forthcoming at the Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics. It also supersedes the earlier arXiv paper "Approximate Bayesian Computation in State Space Models" (arXiv:1409.8363

Measuring patients' views: a bifactor model of distinct patient-reported outcomes in psychosis

Background Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are widely used for evaluating the care of patients with psychosis. Previous studies have reported a considerable overlap in the information captured by measures designed to assess different outcomes. This may impair the validity of PROs and makes an a priori choice of the most appropriate measure difficult when assessing treatment benefits for patients. We aimed to investigate the extent to which four widely established PROs [subjective quality of life (SQOL), needs for care, treatment satisfaction and the therapeutic relationship] provide distinct information independent from this overlap. Method Analyses, based on item response modelling, were conducted on measures of SQOL, needs for care, treatment satisfaction and the therapeutic relationship in two large samples of patients with psychosis. Results In both samples, a bifactor model matched the data best, suggesting sufficiently strong concept factors to allow for four distinct PRO scales. These were independent from overlap across measures due to a general appraisal tendency of patients for positive or negative ratings and shared domain content. The overlap partially impaired the ability of items to discriminate precisely between patients from lower and higher PRO levels. We found that widely used sum scores were strongly affected by the general appraisal tendency. Conclusions Four widely established PROs can provide distinct information independent from overlap across measures. The findings may inform the use and further development of PROs in the evaluation of treatments for psychosis